That was the basis of discussion at the opening plenary session, ‘The Architecture of the new Global Economy’ at the INSEAD Leadership Summit Europe held in Fontainebleau.
“Is there a reset, or is there a new framework for the economy?” Lord Simon of Highbury (MBA '66), a former British Minister for Trade and Competitiveness in Europe posed the question to an audience comprising of INSEAD alumni and invited guests.
When I was asked this question (over 50) years ago, I always resorted to (American baseball coach) ‘Yogi’ Berra...his advice is always succinct, optimistic and driving forward...Yogi would have said ‘it ain’t over till it’s over’. But that’s not enough, he would also have said -- and this is the optimistic bit that I like -- when you come to a fork in the road, take it!
But what does the traveller do when he’s thinking about the new economic architecture? According to Lord Simon, he should look out first for a few signposts, specifically that of bilateralism -- or better yet -- multilateralism.
“At the regional level, it’s very clear the USA and its area of influence, Europe which is crucial to us, and Japan, China, ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations) will handle things very, very differently; hence the importance of the multilateral roof. (Though) if I think about Europe, it’s been a difficult period but Europe works by taking a step which the politicians don’t understand, and then making the model fit again. I think we’re in that stage.”
Although he says Europe has a “deep reservoir of competence that can be called upon”, he cautions its citizens to take the multilateral call seriously, or risk being left behind. “(We) need to have a multilateral framework which has to change from the one we’re using because it failed. I think we have many, many capacities to tweak or to adjust the system so that we can go on doing the things we know -- which is compete, educate, get to the leading-edge and go on growing.”
According to Shanti Poesposoetjipto, CEO of Indonesian company PT Ngrumat Bondo Utomo, globalisation should not be accepted at face value. “Globalisation, looking into the future, would require more of a human face, where justice and equality should (take) precedence.”
Seilliere, however, remains convinced that the cornerstone of this newly-revamped “building” is climate change. “I believe that innovation and research will be at the heart of what’s going to happen in our companies and in our societies in 10, 20 years because right or wrong, there is not a government that will say ‘I am not concerned about this problem.’”
The debt issue continues to dominate, especially as, Seilliere says, “the Europeans have heaped debt upon debt to deal with debt.”
But all this, he adds, is manageable. “I don’t believe one minute that the world is going to collapse because most countries have got a 10 per cent GNP debt on their balance sheet...I don’t know why we should be protected again with inflation and against the flow of that.”
For Lord Simon, the debt issue must be swiftly dealt with. “We’ve gone through a phase of increasing debt in order to keep the system stable.”
The main role for governments will be thinking very hard about how to stimulate growth within their economies. The whole point in Europe of the Lisbon agreement was to balance education, supply side reform and solidarity into a growth package. It clearly didn’t work appropriately over the decade.
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