How positive bias can lead overconfident investors to inflate the size of their wins and forget their losses.
Dan Walters is an Assistant Professor of Marketing at INSEAD. He holds a PhD and MBA from the UCLA Anderson School of Management. Prior to his academic career Dan was in investment banking and investment management where he oversaw a portfolio of $200 million at a value focused, long/short equity hedge fund.
Dan's research focuses on judgment and decision making. He is particularly interested in understanding how people make inferences about missing information in the context of making product decisions, investment judgments, and intertemporal choices. Dan has examined how overconfidence in product inferences can stem from a neglect of unknown evidence, why consumers are overconfident in their memories of products, and how beliefs about the nature of unknown information can impact investment behaviors, such as diversification, trading frequency, and willingness to seek financial advice. Dan has validated this research in theoretical and applied settings, using incentive compatible lab experiments, field studies, and large-scale datasets. Dan has published his work in top academic journals such as Management Science and has given talks on his research at the Society for Consumer Psychology, the Subjective Probability, Utility, and Decision Making Conference, and the Society for Judgment and Decision Making.
When consumers try to estimate a product specification, their best guess depends on whether they believe that they forgot this...