Tools that use averaging to make future predictions might be leaving a lot of relevant information on the table.
Ville Satopää is an Assistant Professor of Technology and Operations Management at INSEAD. His current research explores different areas of forecasting: judgmental and statistical forecasting, modeling crowdsourced predictions, combining and evaluating different predictions, and information elicitation. This involves developing general theory and methodology but also specific projects that analyse real-world data. In addition to working on forecasting, Ville has experience in applying Bayesian statistics to rank hospitals in terms of disease-specific mortality rates.
Before joining INSEAD, Ville received a M.A. / Ph.D. degrees in Statistics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He also holds a B.A. in Mathematics and Computer Sciences from Williams College.
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